EIA Reports
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
At the Kyoto negotiating session, the United States and other developed nations agreed to individual targets for greenhouse gases in the period 2008 to 2012 relative to their emissions in 1990. EIA concludes that:
1. The carbon price required to reduce U.S. energy-related carbon emissions ranges from 67 to 348 per metric ton in 2010. Due to the carbon price, the average price of gasoline could be between 0.14 and 0.66 per gallon higher in 2010 than it would be otherwise, and electricity prices could increase by 20 to 86 percent.
2. Because coal is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, the price of coal will rise dramatically--between 153 and 800 percent in 2010 relative to baseline projections, and coal use will be reduced by between 18 and 77 percent, particularly for electricity generation.
3. Electricity generation by coal will be replaced by natural gas and renewables and also by the continued operation of many existing nuclear plants. Electricity generation by renewable sources will increase as more technologies become economic with higher fossil fuel prices. Renewables could capture between 11 and 22 percent of the generation market by 2020. Major increases are expected in wind and biomass gasification and also in geothermal generation.
3. Nuclear generation's decline will slow as it becomes economic under higher carbon prices to extend the operating life of existing plants rather than retire them, raising nuclear generation between 8 and 20 percent in 2010, compared to the baseline.
4. Gasoline consumption could be between 3 and 18 percent lower in 2010 compared to the baseline, and jet fuel consumption lower by between 1 and 16 percent.
EIA also analyzed cases with alternative assumptions about higher and lower economic growth, faster and slower technology change, and the construction of new nuclear generation plants.
Copies of Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, or of a briefing paper What Does the Kyoto Protocol Mean to U.S. Energy Markets and the U.S. Economy? are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office 202/512-1800 or through EIA's National Energy Information Center, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800. The reports are also available on EIA's Web Site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/. The full report is available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotorpt.html. The briefing paper is available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotobrf.html.
The report described in this press release was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained in the report and the press release should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization.
EIA Program Contact: Mary J. Hutzler, 202/586-2222EIA Press Contact: National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800, infoctr@eia.doe.gov
EIA-98-24
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I SHOULD INDICATE THAT THIS WAS A 1998 EIA REPORT, AND, OF COURSE, THE USA CHOSE NOT TO COMPLY WITH THE KYOTO PROTOCOL. Thus, our supreme leaders, in their infinite wisdom, saved us from what could have been a catastrophic economic debacle in a decade if we had caved in to the international agreement. THE REALITY? At the ultimate high end, the EIA predicted that gasoline would increase by 0.66/GALLON by 2010. The truth is that two years earlier, 2008, the price of gasoline has already increased from 1.30/gallon (1998 price) to something approaching 4/gallon, or 2.70/GALLON. Need I say more?
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