What Is The Current State Of Wind Energy

I have long been associated with wind energy, for in the middle 1970's I chaired the Wind Power Division of the American Solar Energy Society, then went on to assist Congress pass the first bill on this subject when I worked for the U.S. Senate from 1979-82. To my surprise and pleasure, wind energy subsequently became the only solar option to be competitive with coal and nuclear for the production of electricity. Depending on which statistics you use, either the USA or China is #1 in wind energy ("combined, both countries generate almost half the world total"). But Europe is coming on.

This general euphoria, however, has more recently been tempered by a range of issues and setbacks:

- As windfarms are located away from population centers, the matter of who pays for line connectivity has come into play. Wheeling responsibility can double the cost of wind energy.

- The not in my backyard (NIMBY) attitude has served to delay and terminate ambitious wind projects. This resistance comes from bird lovers, those concerned about aesthetics and noise, certain elements of the local population desiring maintenance of current lifestyles, etc.

- Growth has leveled off, and last year actually declined to 2007 installation numbers, but, as the above bar graph shows, there was an exponential rise in total capacity, while the following projection to 2020 has also been published:

Frankly, I think the above increase represents either wishful thinking or oil at 200/barrel.

- Continuation of the production tax credit is stumbling around in Congress, and the combination of termination of the ethanol incentives and general budgetary headaches has made renewal questionable, if not doubtful. Elimination of this measure would severely curtail development in the U.S.

- Windpower is not baseload, for the winds come and go. Utilities have thus, for good reason, limited penetration to between 15% and 30% so that power quality can be maintained. Storage options are available, with pumped storage the most economical if natural conditions exist, and air compression appearing to have some promise, but this added cost is a seriously dissuading factor in any analysis.

However, all things considered, wind energy is "twice" as cheap as other solar options, and will continue to grow for the next century.

Wind machines are also getting bigger, with the larger systems being designed for offshore ("in the ocean") applications. A good rule of thumb is that 1000 MWs ("as in Honolulu") can supply electricity to a million people.

Enercon of Germany has been selling 6 MW ("but several were designed for up to 7.7 MW") machines ("above") for four years now, and 19 are installed or soon to be be commissioned. The current largest marketed turbine is a Vestas 7 MW device ("but this has not yet been built"), where one propeller blade ("below", r"emember, there are three") will be as long as nine London double-decked buses.

A British company has announced the 10 MW Aerogenerator to supply electricity for up to 10,000 homes. From tip to tip, the distance is close to three American football fields.

Danish researchers have indicated that a 20 MW wind energy conversion system (WECS) to provide power to up to 20,000 homes is feasible. The operational year is planned to be 2020.

Then, of course, there are ideas about using the Antarctic ("where average wind speeds can be very high") and tapping the jet stream with a ladder mill or rotor kite or turntable ("above"). Generating and controlling the force of a tornado? Why not, although this one might get closely scrutinized.

I've long felt that a design utilizing floating platforms placed between the major islands of Hawaii to support a group of WECS was the optimal future, for wind velocities are maximized in these regions and the flow is laminar. Mountains induce turbulence, thus causing problems for the gears, bearings and materials. These grazing plantships cannot be moored, so they would be tacked in a gyre pattern to return to the same spot every few days. Electricity cannot be wheeled, so hydrogen might well be generated for next generation airships.

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